Nigeria suffered an export loss of about N941bn to the United States in the first nine months of 2025 following the implementation of former US President Donald Trump’s revised tariff regime, which raised duties on Nigerian goods and sharply altered bilateral trade flows.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that Nigeria’s exports to the US declined to N3.65tn between January and September 2025, down from N4.59tn in the same period of 2024 — a 20.5 per cent drop year-on-year.
In contrast, Nigeria’s imports from the US more than doubled within the same period, rising by 125.5 per cent to N6.80tn from N3.01tn in 2024. The imbalance pushed Nigeria into a trade deficit of N3.15tn with the US, reversing a N1.57tn trade surplus recorded a year earlier.
Tariff Shock Reverses Trade Gains
The sharp deterioration coincided with Washington’s introduction of a so-called “reciprocal tariff” regime. Trump signed an executive order in late July 2025 increasing Nigeria’s tariff rate from 14 per cent to 15 per cent, with the policy taking effect on August 7, 2025.
Although crude oil exports were largely exempted, the higher tariffs applied to a broad range of non-oil Nigerian exports, discouraging US importers and weakening demand both ahead of and after implementation.
Exports Collapse, Imports Surge
Quarterly data illustrates the reversal clearly. In 2024, Nigeria’s exports to the US grew steadily from N1.31tn in Q1 to N1.69tn in Q3, while imports remained relatively moderate, resulting in consistent trade surpluses.
However, in 2025, exports peaked at N1.54tn in Q1, fell to N1.36tn in Q2, and then collapsed by 45.3 per cent to N743.63bn in Q3. Imports surged in the opposite direction, climbing from N1.42tn in Q1 to N3.22tn in Q3.
On a year-on-year basis, exports rose by 17.7 per cent in Q1 2025 but declined by 14.3 per cent in Q2 and plunged by 56 per cent in Q3. Imports increased across all quarters, with Q3 recording a massive 209.4 per cent jump.
As a result, the United States dropped out of Nigeria’s top five export destinations by the second and third quarters of 2025, despite remaining one of the country’s largest sources of imports.
Crude Oil Still Dominates Trade
Product-level data shows Nigeria’s exports to the US in Q1 2025 were dominated by crude petroleum oils (N779.38bn), followed by urea (N240.17bn), jet fuel (N214.30bn), petroleum gases, and cocoa beans.
Imports from the US were led by crude petroleum oils (N726.84bn), alongside used diesel vehicles, lubricating oil additives, soya beans, and butanes — underscoring Nigeria’s continued dependence on energy-related and industrial imports.
Policy Implications
Economists warn that the widening deficit highlights Nigeria’s vulnerability to external trade policy shocks and underscores the urgency of diversifying non-oil exports, strengthening regional trade, and negotiating fairer access to key global markets.
